Addressing Key Uncertainties in Modelling Physical and Ecological Tipping Dynamics in the Earth System (towards TIPMIP)

800. WE-Heraeus-Seminar

05 Nov - 08 Nov 2023


Tagungshotel Hotel Döllnsee-Schorfheide, Templin/Germany

Scientific organizers:

Prof. Dr. Ricarda Winkelmann, PIK Potsdam • Prof. Dr. Victor Brovkin, MPI für Meteorologie, Hamburg • Prof. Dr. Anna von der Heydt, U Utrecht

Climate tipping points are critical thresholds that can induce abrupt and irreversible
transitions in the Earth system, such as permafrost degradation, ice sheet disintegration or
forest mortality. Such transitions can entail severe consequences for ecosystems, societies
and economies worldwide.
While current Earth system models can represent and simulate certain tipping dynamics,
major uncertainties remain with regards to identifying and quantifying respective critical
thresholds, associated timescales, feedback strengths, and the impact of interactions
between tipping elements on the resilience of the Earth system as a whole. There is, hence,
an imperative demand to advance modelling of climate tipping points to enable a more
systematic uncertainty and risk assessment as well as to enhance our comprehension of
future short‐ and long‐term risks.
This seminar aims to address this demand by bringing together experts and early‐career‐
scientists from diverse disciplines and regions to design and conduct coordinated
experiments using state‐of‐the‐art Earth system models. It is embedded in an ongoing
community effort to shape the multi‐year research agenda of a systematic Tipping Point
Model Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP).
The workshop is a timely opportunity, especially for young researchers interested in joining
or contributing to this initiative to acquire more information and contribute to its goals,
methods, challenges and expected outcomes. It enables knowledge exchange and
collaboration among participants and fosters interdisciplinary dialogue. The workshop will
comprise presentations by TIPMIP coordinators and invited speakers, followed by breakout
and poster sessions where participants can deliberate on specific topics related to this
initiative. Finally, the workshop will culminate in a plenary session where the main
outcomes and next steps of the initiative will be synthesised.

The conference language will be English. The Wilhelm and Else Heraeus-Foundation bears the cost of full-board accommodation for all participants.