Extreme Events: Identification, Analysis and Prediction

808. WE-Heraeus-Seminar

22 Apr - 26 Apr 2024


Physikzentrum Bad Honnef

Scientific organizers:

Prof. Dr. Ulrike Feudel, Universität Oldenburg • Prof. Dr. Syamal Dana, Jadavpur University, Kolkata/ IND • Prof. Dr. Klaus Lehnertz, Universität Bonn

Extreme events are of great importance due to their devastating impact on nature, society, and even on single subjects. There is thus an urgent need for improving our understanding of generation and termination of such events as well as for identifying precursors to be able to predict them in advance such that mitigating  measures can be taken. There is also a high demand for new insights into propagation and spreading of extreme events, either in space or into different parts of a system, since such couplings can lead to domino effects and to particularly dangerous compound extreme events.

The aim of this highly interdisciplinary seminar is to discuss possible causes and mechanisms leading to the formation of extreme events, contemporary methods of their statistical and theoretical analysis as well as novel methods for their prediction. As regards theoretical approaches, the focus will be on cutting-edge methods from nonlinear dynamics, network theory, data analysis, and large deviation theory. We will bring together scientists from a large variety of disciplines, in which extreme events become increasingly important: climate science, earth system science including ecology, as well as neuroscience and human health. Furthermore, we will discuss experiments from laser physics, combustion, and ecology which are designed to help understanding generation and termination of extreme events.

Potential participants range from excellent scientists leading in their fields to give comprehensive overviews via outstanding young scientists to PhD students who are interested in interdisciplinary approaches. We expect every participant to contribute to this Seminar by either giving a talk or by presenting a poster.

The conference language will be English. The Wilhelm and Else Heraeus-Foundation bears the cost of full-board accommodation for all participants.